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Based on evidence from conventional models and abundant data, the world has passed the point of maximum oil extraction. This important event, known as "peak oil" or "Hubbert's peak," is described by energy experts such as Kenneth Deffeyes in his 2005 book, Beyond Oil, James Howard Kunstler in his 2005 book, The Long Emergency, and Richard Heinberg in his 2007 book, Peak Everything. Because crude oil is fundamental to the discovery, extraction, and delivery of other energy sources, the world's energy supplies continue to contract.

Peak Oil: A Simple Concept

M. King Hubbert, a petroleum geologist employed by Shell Oil Co., described peak oil in 1949 a paper titled "Energy from fossil fuels" and published in the journal Science. Extraction of crude oil, like the production of many non-renewable resources, follows a bell-shaped curve. The top of the curve is termed "peak oil," or "Hubbert's peak," and it represents the approximate halfway point for oil extraction. Beyond the top of Hubbert's peak, energy depletion is irrevocably relentless.

The bell-shaped curve described by Hubbert applies at all levels, from field to country to planet. After discovery, extraction increases relatively quickly. But when the easily extracted light, sweet crude runs out, increased energy and expense are required to extract the underlying heavy, sour crude. At some point, the energy required to extract a barrel of oil exceeds the energy contained in barrel of oil, so the pumps shut down. Oil is the lifeblood of the world's industrial economy, which suggests the industrial era could end when oil becomes too expensive or difficult to extract and deliver.

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